It seems that this period is indeed critical for Cyprus in relation to
several vital issues. This
short article will address only four; the Cyprus question, the economy,
the security challenge and the broader national value system.
For more than three decades the prevailing perspective was that the Cyprus problem would be resolved
within the framework of a bizonal bicommunal federation.
This has not been possible over different protracted rounds of
negotiations despite the strong support of the international community.
Such a solution seems to have also defied the positive circumstances
created by the current leaders of the two communities, President
Christofias and Turkish Cypriot leader Mehmet Ali Talat in whose long
standing comradeship so much has been invested.
According to the polls Mehmet Ali
Talat will not win in the forthcoming elections of April 18 in the "TRNC".
Be that as it may, the fact that there has not been a solution on
the basis of bizonal bicommunal federation should provide the
opportunity for a broader reassessment. Yes,
a solution advancing integration could bring many changes and above all
a new era. On the other
hand, solutions based on consociational and ethnonationalist pillars
as in the case of the solution being sought - are more often than not
associated with tensions and frictions and are rarely viable.
The record of Cyprus is such
that nobody can support the view that such a model will be successful.
Indeed,
a Cyprus solution along the basis of the Bosnian model would create more
problems than it will solve.
In actual fact, the substantive decision to be made is whether we move
into a federal integrationalist model or a two state solution.
There is good reason to believe that if
Turkey
recognizes the right of the
Republic
of Cyprus to exist,
withdraws its occupation troops and resolves the issue of the settlers a
federal integrationalist model may have good chances of being sustained.
Second the economy. For
years many Cypriots thought that in one way or another the
Cyprus
economy was strong enough to sustain domestic as well as international
shocks. But the reality is
that the model which led to what has been described as "the economic
miracle" of the 80s and 90s has long expired and is now out of context.
And irrespective of the international economic crisis the
economic fundamentals of Cyprus are problematic its oversized broad
public sector, structural problems in the labour market such as a
mismatch between supply and demand, low productivity and low
competitiveness in several sectors including tourism, strong unions in
the privileged sectors often with unrealistic expectations.
These problems will not go away, and certainly not through short term
measures to combat the growing economic crisis.
Drastic reform is necessary.
The question that is raised is to what extent pragmatism will
overcome ideology and sustained practices.
The positive element is that these issues have been raised and
are being discussed. And
there is a general consensus that Cyprus must act in a way to avoid the
fate of Greece.
Nevertheless, so far there has been no fundamental move which will
create a new engine of growth and, indeed, a new paradigm.
In this regard the potential for advancing Cyprus as a regional
academic centre so far remains very much underutilized.
Third, for years the objective of a demilitarized non aligned Cyprus has been treated as a sacred
cow. This idea has been
sustained in the presence of 40.000 Turkish troops of occupation, the
British Bases and a relatively small Cypriot National Guard, of about
10.000. But how can a
demilitarised non aligned Cyprus be
possible even after a solution?
Cyprus is located in the heart of the Eastern Mediterranean a region of high geostrategic and
geoeconomic significance.
Inevitably Cyprus must
place itself as a member of a relevant defence organization.
The old system of guarantor powers Greece, Turkey
and Britain
did not provide security to the island.
On the contrary there is little doubt that this system was part
of the broader problem.
Following the 1974 disaster there was an anti-western outcry which to
the present has prevented even
Cyprus
as a EU member state from addressing serious options.
To be more specific Greek Cypriots blamed NATO for the disaster
and also felt bitter that the West in essence tolerated the Turkish
invasion and occupation of the northern part of Cyprus.
Although perspectives have not changed much about what really
happened in 1974, with the accession negotiation process as well as with
the eventual accession to the EU and subsequently with the adoption of
the euro, a great deal has changed in relation to perspectives about the
future. There is little
doubt that the silent majority would like to see Cyprus as a member of a security
organization of the West.
Likewise most Greek Cypriots eventually feel that the objective of an
integrated Cyprus
may be achieved in the framework of the EU and western institutions.
And a notable number of Turkish Cypriots would be prepared to go
along with such adjustments.
This brings us to the fourth issue.
For years Cyprus politics
entailed several myths which were considered also as fundamental pillars
of the system. One could say
that all countries have their narrative which inevitably contains some
myths. In the case of Cyprus not only the concept of the
narrative is not understood but several existing myths and practices
have proved very costly. It
is therefore essential to address the
Cyprus
question, the economy and the security challenges "outside the box" -
leaving behind or at least modifying established wisdom and positions.
On several issues the public may be ahead from politicians. It is
time to abandon outdated and inapplicable models.
The time has come for
Cyprus
to truly move forward. This
would be the triumph of politics.
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