Erdogan’s visit to Paris is an additional sign of the recent
Franco-Turkish rapprochement. This rapprochement started in October and
is based on two foundations. First, France’s commitment that it will
cease to make any public statements regarding the possibility of a
privileged partnership as an alternative to the membership option and to
allow the negotiation process to continue with the exception of the five
chapters already frozen by France. Second, the removal of all obstacles
regarding the participation of French firms in the Nabucco project or
other economic activities in Turkey. This arrangement is the
outcome of many discussions between
the two sides. All started when France
asked Turkey
to improve their stalling bilateral relations and the ending of Turkish
objections to the participation of Gaz de France to Nabucco pipeline.
The Turkish side replied that it
was not possible to improve relations while France promotes the privileged
partnership option among the EU member states.
In support of this position Ankara argues that is not fair to be pressed
for the necessary adjustment to the
aqcuis and at the same time to
undermine the membership goal. As Turkey explains
internal reforms can be easier only if the membership option remains
clear and feasible. Eventually the two sides came to a compromise. France will
maintain its position for a privileged partnership and keep its veto
regarding the five chapters but at the same time it will end its public
statements in favour of the privilege partnership.
During the last months both countries have kept
their promises with France
avoiding any negative statements and keeping a moderate stance during
the December’s European council and
Turkey
allowing Gaz de France participation into the Nabucco project. In
addition officials from both countries have paid visits to each other
and promoted bilateral relations. Erdogan’s latest statement that he
hopes France will change its position regarding Turkey’s
accession to the EU is perhaps indicative that although the French
position remains unchanged eventually the final decision on the issue
will be taken in the future.
Before Erdogan’s statement German Chancellor Merkel made a more detailed
analysis on how her country (together with
France) define privileged partnership
or at least how the accession negotiations will proceed. According to
Merkel Turkey has to continue with the negotiation and the necessary
adjustments and internal reforms in all chapters except the five ones
that is the core of the membership status. Merkel’s five chapters not
accidentally coincide with the five already been frozen by France. As
Merkel explained this is an open ended process and final decisions will
be taken after the successful conclusion of the negotiations in all
other chapters except the five ones.
Erdogan and AKP look satisfied with this arrangement because they can
continue in the name of EU membership the reforms in Turkey and by this
to win the internal power game against the kemalists. The Turkish
leadership is also optimistic that by the time of final decisions their
country will be economically wealthy and politically strong so that the
Europeans, including the Germans and the
French, will prefer to
have Turkey
in the Union.
The Commission’s initiative to restart the process regarding the
approval of the direct trade (with the occupied areas of Cyprus) regulation seems to be
another part of this understanding. Without de-freezing the 8+6 chapters
the whole understanding will remain meaningless. Only with the approval
of the regulation and the opening of Turkish ports and airports to
Cypriot ships and airplanes it will be feasible to (Germany
and France) remove
the existing obstacles to
Turkey’s accession negotiations with
the annulment of the Council’s 2006 decision. EU leading countries have
come to the conclusion that they need Turkey as
economic, energy and regional partner and in order to achieve that Greek
and Cypriot objections must be overcome in one way or another. The
Socialist group in the European Parliament has already expressed its
support the initiative of
Commissioner Fuller. After
President Christofias’ protests the Group expressed some reservations
and with a new statement made a clear connection with the need for a
simultaneous implementation of the Additional Protocol by
Turkey. It will not be a surprise to
see this happen in the next few months. Turkey has no
problem to open its ports and airports if it gets the political
upgrading of the Turkish Cypriot illegal entity. We must also remember
that Turkish ports used to be open for ships under Cypriot flag until
1987.
This new understanding is influenced by Turkey’s growing economic strength
and regional influence. Erdogan’s Turkey is a different country that
it was before. Nowadays
Turkey
is part of the G20, non permanent member of the UN Security Council. A
Turk parliamentarian presides the Parliamentary Assembly of the Council
of Europe and a Turkish professor is currently the Secretary General of
the Organization of the Islamic Conference.
Turkish armed forces are among
the most powerful in the region and participate in a number of
international peacekeeping missions. Its growing influence in Middle
Eastern matters has made it part of all discussions on international and
regional level regarding the Palestinian issue, the Syrian-Israeli
conflict or the Iranian nuclear program.
Having all the above in mind I come to conclusion that there is a new
dynamic in the EU-Turkey relations. The two sides have set new rules
that will enable the unhindered continuation of the accession
negotiations process. They will reassess the situation in the future
after the successful conclusion of the current phase and before
de-freezing of the five “French” chapters. This new dynamic will change
the current status quo in Cyprus in a dramatic way. Pressure will
increase on the Greek Cypriot
community to accept a solution formula closer to the Annan Plan or to
see the fast Taiwanization of the northern part of Cyprus.
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