Affiliated with the University of Nicosia |
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The way ahead after Turkey's constitutional referendum By Didem Akyel
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International Crisis Group, Istanbul, Turkey |
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Turkey’s staunch
secularists and its main opposition parties are still reeling from the
results of last month’s nationwide referendum in which 58 per cent of
Turkish voters supported a constitutional reform package put forward by
the religious-conservative Justice and Development Party (AKP)
government. This unprecedented level of support for the government has
positive implications for On 12 September,
or the 30th anniversary of the 1980 military coup, 77 per cent of the
Turkish electorate turned out to vote on a package of 26 proposals to
amend the country’s constitution, already altered sixteen times since it
was adopted under military rule in 1982. Even though the AKP is no
stranger to sweeping electoral successes (it has won two parliamentary
elections, two municipal elections and two referendums since coming to
power in 2002), the referendum victory further reinforced expectations
that it will stay ahead in the parliamentary elections in June 2011. It
may well encourage Prime Minister Erdoğan to stand for president in The referendum
demonstrated geographically-based political divisions similar to the
2009 local elections. The “no” votes were concentrated in A divisive
pre-referendum campaign focused on items of the package concerning the
makeup of AKP defends the constitutional
changes as a move towards democratization. In terms of military reform,
the amendments restrict the powers of military courts to crimes of
military personnel related to military service and duties and give
civilian courts authority to try them in all other cases; remove an
article in the constitution that prohibited the prosecution of those
responsible for the 1980 coup; and allow the army chief and other top
officers to be tried by the Supreme Court. As a prerequisite of EU
accession, the reforms also provide the legal basis for establishing an
ombudsman. The package includes other small changes concerning data
protection, extending rights of trade unions and civil servants, and
positive discrimination for special groups such as women and children. But its opponents have significant
reservations. They argue that after undermining the military’s power
through several coup-plot cases, the government is now trying to gain
control over the judiciary. Pointing out that the party ran into
problems with the judiciary in the past – most recently in 2008 when it
narrowly escaped a closure case by the Constitutional Court – the “no”
camp sees the main aim of constitutional changes as removing checks and
balances in order to increase the government’s authority. Critics also
lament the fact that as AKP prepared the constitutional reforms, it
failed to reach a consensus with other parliamentary parties and civil
society institutions. *
*
* Will the referendum’s outcome
deepen existing splits in Turkish society or present an opportunity for
a new period of reform? So far, commentators have recognized the
government's victory, but with caution, especially concerning the
implementation of judicial reforms and freedom of expression.
Increasingly, commentators criticize Prime Minister Erdoğan for
brow-beating editors and opening court cases that they say aim to
silence dissenting opinions in mass media and civil society
organizations. Western partners
mainly applauded For Turkey’s
partners and neighbours, the referendum results also bode well for
stability in the near future, given that Erdoğan and his government look
likely to remain in power for the near to medium term. They underline
the Europeanizing trend that has forced the once-dominant military to
take a back seat. *
*
* Looking forward,
AKP will want to keep the momentum going until the 2011 general
elections, most importantly by starting work on a totally new civilian
constitution to be completed after the elections in 2011. In a
conciliatory speech after the referendum, Prime Minister Erdoğan said
his party will seek consensus with other parties in preparing this new
constitution. Despite the fact that half of its negotiating chapters are
blocked by The strength with
which the government emerged from the referendum gives hope that it will
experiment with new and more creative approaches to some of Winning the
referendum was a relatively small step compared to the tasks ahead. The
bigger challenge now facing the prime minister and his AKP government
may well be the need to show true leadership in using this victory to
advance |
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