by Christos Iacovou, Assistant Professor of International Relations
The death of Yasser Arafat presents new challenges for the Palestinian National Movement as well as for Israel. The response of these actors will determine whether the transition to a new governing structure will be normal or erupt into chaos and whether it will be possible to move ahead in the peace process without the charismatic leadership of Arafat.
Arafat’s departure fitted the end he had created, since his last years were lived in a round of maneuvers, sometimes leading nowhere. Arafat left a vacuum. There is no one who can speak for the Palestinians and be listened to as authoritative. He left a clear concept about the Palestinian State on the one hand and a chaos about the strategy to achieve it, from the other.
Although Arafat's successor cannot yet be identified, the power groups that will decide for his successor are well-defined. The next leader will not come from the opposition (Islamic Movement). Moreover, the PLO's founding leadership, all close to their late sixties, is leaving the political scene. The two most likely heirs, Abu Jihad (the one that Arafat really liked as his successor) and Abu Iyad, were assassinated long ago. The rest of the leadership seems unable to produce a consensus about the candidate. The ongoing intifada generation appears ready to challenge the power of the old generation. This is a very critical moment for the Palestinian National Movement. Arafat’s successor would be more challengeable. His weaker legitimacy would make his regime more vulnerable to opposition challenges but such kind of problem would make the new leadership readier to use force against rivals if necessary in order to retain power. As many national movements have experienced throughout history, replacing the founding father is the true test of their ability to survive and achieve their national aims.
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