Mahmoud Abbas: Post-Election Expectations

Mahmoud Abbas: Post-Election Expectations

by Christos Iacovou, Assistant Professor of International Relations

The January 9 elections in the Palestinian territories represent a mechanism both for filling the

power vacuum left by the death of Yasser Arafat and for adopting a new path to the future.

The final count gave Mahmoud Abbas, Fatah’s candidate, 62 per cent of the vote – three times

the tally of his challenger, human rights activist Mustafa Barghouthi.

Before his election, many Western analysts expected that Mahmoud Abbas would be amenable

to working within the US-Israeli parameters for managing the crisis. Some hoped that security

cooperation would be accompanied by reinvigoration of formal Israeli-Palestinian negotiations

toward a final settlement, through the road map of the Quartet. By all indications, Abbas himself

has more realistic expectations. During the electoral campaign, he made conciliatory promises to

“protect” Palestinian militant groups if they were to observe a ceasefire. The post electoral attacks

against Israeli targets suggest that such talk carries little weight, particularly in the face of the

Israeli occupation and military operations.

Abbas’ victory was primarily a vote for Fatah, not for him, and not necessarily for an end to armed

resistance. Abbas has already been reminded that Sharon’s expectations are much blunter. Abbas’

main task will be to downsize Palestinian expectations and attempt to secure the modest relief that

many hunger for, especially in a population that has been worn down by four costly years of the

Indifanda. While Mahmoud Abbas currently lacks a mandate to depart from the Arafat legacy

on the final-status issues of borders, settlements, refugees and Jerusalem, he does have a strong

mandate to end the accompanying chaos and violence.

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